Voting trends in October 2019

In the last 24 hours, Eduard Zaloshnja, Ph.D, conducted the monthly electronic poll for Follow Business Albania. The main question in the poll was: “For which parties would vote those Albanians that would participate in parliamentary elections, if held today.

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By extrapolating the results of the poll, Dr. Zaloshnja found that ONLY 1.34 million adults in Albania would participate in parliamentary elections, if held today (around 250 thousand less than in 2017 parliamentary elections).

PS and  PD-ja preserve more or less their votes of 2017 (but have a higher percentage of the votes now, because of the lower turnout). Meanwhile, LSI and other minor parties experience a significant shrinking, bot in number of votes and percentages (see Graph 1 and 2).

Using a Logistic Regression Model, Dr. Zaloshnja estimated the probability of each interviewee participating in future elections, whenever they might take place. Based on the models results, he extrapolated that around 1.66 million current adults in Albania have a probability over 50% to participate in future elections, whenever they might take place. In Table 1. it is reported the opinion of only these Albanians about the work Edi Rama as prime minister.